ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
Open5as of
Market pricing makes 25 bps increase the favorite at 82% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
ECB: DECEMBER RATE HIKE NOW SEEN AS HIGHLY LIKELY • • Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel says another ECB interest-rate hike in December is almost unavoidable unless the inflation outlook improves significantly. • • The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% last week, but policymakers increasingly view the pause as temporary. • • Inflation is expected to exceed 4% in the coming months, more than double the ECB's 2% target. • • Bulgarian central bank chief Dimitar Radev also warned that the inflation outlook has deteriorated since September.
ECB: DECEMBER RATE HIKE NOW SEEN AS HIGHLY LIKELY • • Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel says another ECB interest-rate hike in December is almost unavoidable unless the inflation outlook improves significantly. • • The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% last week, but policymakers increasingly view the pause as temporary. • • Inflation is expected to exceed 4% in the coming months, more than double the ECB's 2% target. • • Bulgarian central bank chief Dimitar Radev also warned that the inflation outlook has deteriorated since September.
ECB Insight: Post-Meeting Comments Point Clearly to December Hike; Less Clarity Thereafter
POLL-ECB to hike rates again in December as inflation almost doubles 2% target
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.75% in December, Said 64 of 73 Economists (vs 58 of 64 Expecting 2.50% in September Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.75% in December, Said 64 of 73 Economists (vs 58 of 64 Expecting 2.50% in September Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.75% in December, Said 64 of 73 Economists (vs 58 of 64 Expecting 2.50% in September Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.75% in December, Said 64 of 73 Economists (vs 58 of 64 Expecting 2.50% in September Poll)
Standard Chartered Expects ECB to Deliver a 25 Bp Rate Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Unchanged Rates
Standard Chartered Expects ECB to Deliver a 25 Bp Rate Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Unchanged Rates
BofA Global Research Expects ECB to Deliver a 25bp Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.