Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$467Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Ford to receive $1.3 billion government refund for Trump's IEEPA tariffs
Trump Administration Moves To Replace Struck-Down Tariffs With New Import Tax System. • The Trump administration has begun a new phase of trade enforcement efforts aimed at establishing longer-lasting import taxes after the Supreme Court ruled that its use of emergency powers to impose broad tariffs went beyond legal authority.
Parcel delivery giants FedEx and UPS stated they will refund any tariff amounts to their customers as the U.S. government begins returning illegally collected levies. • • More Here →
G.M.’s Profit Bolstered by a $500 Million Tariff Refund
Due to the lifting of tariffs, the US will have to return to companies $159 billion that Washington received from the tariffs. Trump announced this on the social media platform TruthSocial. "People and businesses who have benefited from our Country for decades are now facing a $159 Billion dollar refund because of the United States Supreme Court's terrible and ridiculous tariff decision," Trump wrote. The American leader complained that the US Supreme Court did not block the return of the funds: “All they had to do was say one short sentence: ‘The United States is not obligated to return money that has already been paid,’ and our country would have been $159 billion richer. That’s more than most countries are worth!” RBC Channel in "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
That's "MAFIA stuff." Ali Velshi reacts to Trump encouraging companies NOT to apply for tariff refunds. • • WATCH LIVE HERE:
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match33¢+203%
From @WSJopinion: A 6-3 Supreme Court majority struck down Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs in a monumental vindication of the Constitution’s separation of powers. You might call it the real tariff Liberation Day.
YESBBC News (World)98%match33¢+203%
Trump lashes out at Supreme Court justices over tariffs ruling
YESReuters Business98%match33¢+203%
WATCH: Trump responded with fury to a Supreme Court ruling that he did not have the power to unilaterally set tariffs on imports, denigrating individual justices as he vowed to wield a more restrictive law to continue his global trade war
NORapid Response 4798%match67¢-100%
.@StephenM: As cowardly, as horrendous as the Supreme Court's ruling was, here is the good news: The Court also affirmed that the President has the authority to levy tariffs on foreign nations — so his tariffs will not only be fully reconstituted, they will also be expanded.
YESReuters98%match33¢+203%
Trump responded with fury to a Supreme Court ruling that he did not have the power to unilaterally set tariffs on imports, denigrating individual justices as he vowed to wield a more restrictive law to continue his global trade war
YESAcyn98%match33¢+203%
Miller: As cowardly as The Supreme Court ruling was, as poorly as it reflects on the Roberts' court, and the continued torturing of our statutes and our constitution, here is the good news…. The president has authority to restrict, impede, deny, license, or even fully embargo…
YESBloomberg99%match33¢+203%
President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday imposing a 10% global tariff on foreign goods, moving quickly to preserve his trade agenda after the US Supreme Court struck down many of the levies he imposed last year
YESAcyn98%match33¢+203%
Trump: Those members of the Supreme Court who voted against our very acceptable and proper method of TARIFFS should be ashamed of themselves…. We will do everything possible to take in even more money than we were taking in before!
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match33¢+203%
Trump: ‘Those members of the Supreme Court who voted against our very acceptable and proper method of TARIFFS should be ashamed of themselves. Their decision was ridiculous but, now the adjustment process begins, and we will do everything possible to take in even more money than…
YESBloomberg99%match33¢+203%
Detroit’s automakers asked the White House to shield them from new tariffs that President Trump vowed to impose after the Supreme Court struck down most of his global duties
NOCGTN America99%match67¢-100%
TRUMP: SIGNED, FROM OVAL OFFICE, A GLOBAL 10% TARIFF ON ALL COUNTRIES
YESReuters98%match33¢+203%
VIEW Stocks jump after US Supreme Court rejects Trump's tariffs
YESzerohedge99%match25¢+300%
Supreme Court May Rule On Tariffs Today; US Customs Sets Deadline For Refunds
YESBloomberg99%match29¢+245%
More than 1,000 companies are "leaping on the bandwagon" to recoup tariff fees in case the Supreme Court sides against Trump
Where does the news lean?
22YES11NO19neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.