Bank of Japan Decision in September?25 bps increase
Open$126Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 89% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES89¢
NO12¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Expectations of a September interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are rising, following intervention and comments from Chairman Bencent.
ANALYSIS-Nudge from Bessent firms case for BOJ rate hike in September
Over 60% expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September; Mr. Bessent offers support to prevent yen depreciation
Washington's plans to help stem the decline are extensive; a September rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost a certainty.
US and Japan join forces to support the yen; analysts say a September rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost a certainty.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, while assessing the impact of last month's rate hike. The yen could weaken depending on the governor's remarks.
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting: Likely to keep policy interest rates unchanged; assessing the impact of the previous rate hike.
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering keeping its policy interest rate unchanged, while maintaining its policy of raising interest rates to ensure price stability. The monetary policy meeting will be held from the 30th.
Bank of Japan to keep key rate unchanged at next week's policy meeting: sources
Bank of Japan to keep key rate at next week's policy meeting: sources
Reuters has once again published an exclusive report from sources close to the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterate its upward 2% inflation scenario, but it will also state that "the risks surrounding the imminent oil-driven price shock have receded compared to April," giving the impression of a somewhat dovish stance. It seems that government pressure is still ongoing.
Where does the news lean?
37YES23NO82neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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