Bank of Japan Decision in September?25 bps increase
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$548Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected, the highest level in 31 years.
The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike! Raising it by 25 basis points, the yen depreciated sharply, leading outside observers to believe the central bank was "not hawkish enough."
Just In: Bank of Japan Raises Rates by 25 Bps to 1.25%, Highest Level in Around 31 Years • • The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points from 1.0% to 1.25%, with the decision passing by a 7–2 vote. The BOJ said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately despite some weakness linked to factors including tensions in the Middle East, while underlying inflation is gradually approaching its 2% price stability target. The central bank added that it will continue raising rates and adjust monetary easing if its economic and price outlook is realized.
Bank of Japan raises policy rate 25 bps to 1.25%; markets eye follow-up • Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on Friday, matching all economists surveyed. The move was the fastest pace of tightening in 36 years, and the gap since June’s hike was the shortest since 1990. Governor Ueda will explain the decision and the near-term rate path at a scheduled press conference. FX markets have shifted focus from whether to hike to how many hikes will follow; several institutions warn the yen could weaken after the decision unless the BOJ signals stronger tightening. A Reuters survey shows markets broadly expect rates to rise to 1.5% by end‑March 2027 and to 1.75% in Q2 2027. (
Bank of Japan expects to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week as inflationary pressures increase the risk of excessive inflation.
Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at this month's meeting, accelerating pace to 1.25%, first time since June, communicates policy to government in response to inflation caused by the weak yen.
YESReuters97%match97¢+3%
Bank of Japan to Raise Key Interest Rates by 0.25 Percentage Point in Sept Meeting, Kyodo News Says
The yen broke through 154 yen to the dollar in early trading on Tuesday, reaching as high as 153.80, its highest level since February; it had already surged 1.2% on Monday. The market is almost certain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on September 17-18 and is betting on the yen to rise further to 152. Mitsubishi UFJ Trust points out that if it holds above 154, the next key level may be 152. The options market shows traders are increasingly bullish on the yen and covering short positions against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc. Bloomberg Economics has moved its forecast for the next rate hike forward from October to September, by 25 basis points; if this happens, it will be only three months after the June rate hike, the shortest interval in this wave. The market is even betting on three consecutive rate hikes before the end of the year, but Bloomberg believes this is unlikely, predicting that the next rate hike will not occur until January next year after September. The sharp rise in the yen has already had a tightening effect, potentially reducing real GDP by at most 0.3%; raising interest rates too quickly would also increase the government's interest burden and could trigger the unwinding of carry trades, impacting global stock markets. The stronger yen also supported gold prices, with spot gold rising slightly to $4,409.68 per ounce in Asian trading. The market estimates a roughly 60% chance of the Fed raising interest rates next week and is awaiting this week's US CPI data. [
Bloomberg The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is inclined to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (25 basis points) to 1.25% at its policy meeting ending on September 18, mainly due to the skewed upward risk of inflation. Rising service prices and a weaker yen reinforce the case for a rate hike. Officials believe the economy is largely in line with expectations, and there are no major changes sufficient to support a 25 basis point increase at once; a significant rate hike is unlikely. The central bank is aware that further rate hikes may be necessary after September and will adjust the pace flexibly based on economic and inflation risks, not ruling out accelerating the pace if necessary. This decision is closely watched by Washington. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter repeatedly expressed his hope for further rate hikes in Japan during the G20 summit and discussed with Governor Ueda Kazuo a sound policy, stabilizing inflation expectations, and avoiding excessive exchange rate volatility. Market OIS pricing has already fully reflected the expectation of a rate hike. If the BOJ holds rates steady, it could shake global financial markets. If a rate hike occurs in September, it will be only three months since the last rate hike in June, marking the shortest interval since Ueda took office.
The Bank of Japan is reportedly inclined to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this month, but will remain flexible on future pace.
Expectations of a September interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are rising, following intervention and comments from Chairman Bencent.
ANALYSIS-Nudge from Bessent firms case for BOJ rate hike in September
Over 60% expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September; Mr. Bessent offers support to prevent yen depreciation
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering keeping its policy interest rate unchanged, while maintaining its policy of raising interest rates to ensure price stability. The monetary policy meeting will be held from the 30th.
Reuters has once again published an exclusive report from sources close to the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterate its upward 2% inflation scenario, but it will also state that "the risks surrounding the imminent oil-driven price shock have receded compared to April," giving the impression of a somewhat dovish stance. It seems that government pressure is still ongoing.
Where does the news lean?
46YES30NO186neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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