Bank of Japan Decision in September?50+ bps decrease
Open$20Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
POLL-BOJ to speed up its tightening campaign, raise key rate to 1.25% in September
NOReuters97%match100¢
Reuters Poll-Bank of Japan to Raise Benchmark Interest Rate to 1.25% in September, Say 57% of Economists (vs 5% of Economists in Previous Poll)
BoJ Set To Offer Clues As Markets Bet Heavily On September Hike - BBG • •
Live: Reuters: BOJ eyeing September rate hike
Sources say BoJ eyeing September rate hike & faster pace of tightening ... RTRS • • • • Carry Traders Exploit Intervention to Rebuild Yen Shorts ... BBG • •
80% of people are now expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September; coordinated intervention between Japan and the US is "closing the moat"
80% of people are now expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September; coordinated intervention by Japan and the US is "closing the outer defenses."
Jiji Press cited people familiar with the matter saying the Bank of Japan may consider another rate hike at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting to address the risk of accelerating inflation. (
★Bank of Japan hints at September interest rate hike, a key factor in coordinated intervention
Over 60% expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September; Chris Bessent supports efforts to prevent yen depreciation.
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting: Policy interest rate expected to remain unchanged; Governor Ueda returns
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting: Likely to keep policy interest rates unchanged; assessing the impact of the previous rate hike.
Where does the news lean?
0YES24NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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