Bank of Japan Decision in September?50+ bps increase
ResolvedOutcome: No$503Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bank of Japan set to raise policy rate to 1.25% next week
NOReuters96%match99¢+1%
BoJ Set to Raise Interest Rates, Most Likely by 25 Basis Points, at Next Week’s Policy Meeting, Sources Say
NOReuters92%match99¢+1%
BoJ’s Masu: We Should Proceed at a Cautious Approach in Pushing Up Borrowing Costs, When Asked About Chance of 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates at its meeting this month, accelerating the pace to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years since June, in response to inflation caused by the weak yen.
NOReuters97%match99¢+1%
Bank of Japan to Raise Key Interest Rates by 0.25 Percentage Point in Sept Meeting, Kyodo News Says
Bloomberg The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is inclined to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (25 basis points) to 1.25% at its policy meeting ending on September 18, mainly due to the skewed upward risk of inflation. Rising service prices and a weaker yen reinforce the case for a rate hike. Officials believe the economy is largely in line with expectations, and there are no major changes sufficient to support a 25 basis point increase at once; a significant rate hike is unlikely. The central bank is aware that further rate hikes may be necessary after September and will adjust the pace flexibly based on economic and inflation risks, not ruling out accelerating the pace if necessary. This decision is closely watched by Washington. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter repeatedly expressed his hope for further rate hikes in Japan during the G20 summit and discussed with Governor Ueda Kazuo a sound policy, stabilizing inflation expectations, and avoiding excessive exchange rate volatility. Market OIS pricing has already fully reflected the expectation of a rate hike. If the BOJ holds rates steady, it could shake global financial markets. If a rate hike occurs in September, it will be only three months since the last rate hike in June, marking the shortest interval since Ueda took office.
BoJ Is Said To Favor Quarter-Point Hike, Flexible On Future Path - BBG •
Bloomberg: Bank of Japan leans toward raising key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point this month
*BOJ likely to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at this month's meeting, pace flexible - sources = Bloomberg *BOJ IS SAID TO FAVOR QUARTER-POINT HIKE, FLEXIBLE FUTURE PACE: BBG
NONews91%match99¢+1%
*BOJ IS SAID TO FAVOR QUARTER-POINT HIKE, FLEXIBLE FUTURE PACE
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group shares stagnate as Bank of Japan Deputy Governor refrains from raising interest rates in September.
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering keeping its policy interest rate unchanged, while maintaining its policy of raising interest rates to ensure price stability. The monetary policy meeting will be held from the 30th.
Where does the news lean?
7YES59NO60neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Bank of Japan Decision in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.