Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Odds jumped to 57% on Aug 10, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? On , the market’s odds jumped from 42.5¢ to 57.5¢ (+15 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from 47news.jp. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match42.5¢
+5m42.5¢
+30m60¢
+1h57.5¢
+24h59¢
1h move+15 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 42.5¢ → 57.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from 47news.jp

What moved the odds?

Neutral47news.jp95%match
The Bank of Japan intervenes after hinting at a September interest rate hike; the US praises Governor Ueda's remarks; concerns remain about the yen's depreciation spreading to global markets.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$548K

Follow this market

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Bank of Japan Decision in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.