US Trade Deficit in 2026?<500B
Open$17Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
U.S. Trade Deficit Falls To Lowest Level Since First Quarter Of 2020. • The deficit decrease is largely a response to last year, when trade and the deficit swelled in anticipation of President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs.
US TRADE BALANCE ACTUAL -60.3B (FORECAST -60.95B, PREVIOUS -57.3B) ...
MARCH US TRADE IN GOODS: -$87.9 BLN ; FEB REVISED TO $83.5 BLN VS ORIGINAL $98.5 BLN #trade #goods #economy
US March Trade advanced goods trade balance -$87.8B versus $-86.95 billion estimate •
.@USTradeRep Amb. Greer reflects on one year since Liberation Day: "Manufacturing productivity has gone up to the highest level it's ever been. The past two months, we've had record-breaking export numbers for the United States...We've seen the trade deficit go down by 24%."
While Trump touted tariffs as a way to shrink the U.S. debt, slash the trade deficit and bring back manufacturing j…
NOBenzinga98%match55¢+76%
RT @Benzinga: Gita Gopinath Says 150-Day Tariffs 'Cannot Reduce Persistent Trade Deficits,' Rejects 'Heart Attack' Narratives For US Econom…
Where does the news lean?
1YES15NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
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