US Trade Deficit in 2026?

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Market pricing makes 800–900B the favorite at 48% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

800–900B48%
700–800B21%
900B–1T14%
600–700B10%
500–600B5%
1T–1.1T4%
1.1T+4%
<500B3%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

800–900Bkucoin.com97%match
US Trade Deficit Hits $105.6B in August, Highest Since March 2025. • US Trade Deficit Jumps 13.7% to $105.6 Billion in August 2026 The US trade deficit widened by 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August
700–800Bkucoin.com97%match79¢
US Trade Deficit Hits $105.6B in August, Highest Since March 2025. • US Trade Deficit Jumps 13.7% to $105.6 Billion in August 2026 The US trade deficit widened by 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August
1.1T+kucoin.com97%match2¢+100%
US Trade Deficit Hits $105.6B in August, Highest Since March 2025. • US Trade Deficit Jumps 13.7% to $105.6 Billion in August 2026 The US trade deficit widened by 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August
1.1T+spa.gov.sa92%match3¢+33%
Economic / US trade deficit rises to its highest level in 17 months
700–800Bthehill.com98%match79¢
US trade deficit passes $100B for first time since March 2025 The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 17-month high in August, topping $100 billion for the first time since March 2025. U.S. imports of goods and services that month were worth $105.6 billion more than the value of exports, according to data the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday. That marked an…
900B–1Tthehill.com98%match11¢+27%
US trade deficit passes $100B for first time since March 2025 The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 17-month high in August, topping $100 billion for the first time since March 2025. U.S. imports of goods and services that month were worth $105.6 billion more than the value of exports, according to data the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday. That marked an…
500–600Bthehill.com98%match95¢
US trade deficit passes $100B for first time since March 2025 The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 17-month high in August, topping $100 billion for the first time since March 2025. U.S. imports of goods and services that month were worth $105.6 billion more than the value of exports, according to data the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday. That marked an…
1T–1.1Tthehill.com98%match5¢-20%
US trade deficit passes $100B for first time since March 2025 The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 17-month high in August, topping $100 billion for the first time since March 2025. U.S. imports of goods and services that month were worth $105.6 billion more than the value of exports, according to data the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday. That marked an…
1.1T+thehill.com98%match2¢+100%
US trade deficit passes $100B for first time since March 2025 The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 17-month high in August, topping $100 billion for the first time since March 2025. U.S. imports of goods and services that month were worth $105.6 billion more than the value of exports, according to data the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday. That marked an…
800–900Balarabiya_bn96%match75¢-31%
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
700–800Balarabiya_bn96%match78¢+1%
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
900B–1Talarabiya_bn96%match89¢-3%
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
600–700Balarabiya_bn96%match90¢
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
500–600Balarabiya_bn96%match95¢
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
1.1T+alarabiya_bn96%match2¢+100%
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a sharp rise in goods imports amid strong domestic demand, meaning trade is once again on track to be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported the trade deficit reached $105.6 billion. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion. Exports increased 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports climbed 2.2% to $205.7 billion. #Arabic_Business
800–900Bcnbc93%match75¢-31%
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence buildout and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. • • Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion. • • Read more:
700–800Bcnbc93%match78¢+1%
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence buildout and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. • • Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion. • • Read more:
600–700Bcnbc92%match90¢
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence buildout and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. • • Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion. • • Read more:
1T–1.1Tcnbc93%match4¢
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence buildout and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. • • Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion. • • Read more:
1.1T+cnbc94%match2¢+100%
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence buildout and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. • • Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion. • • Read more:
900B–1Tcnbc92%match89¢-3%
Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year
1.1T+cnbc92%match2¢+100%
Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year
900B–1Tcnbc.com92%match89¢-3%
Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year
1.1T+cnbc.com92%match2¢+100%
Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year
1.1T+ifre.com94%match2¢+100%
US ECON - Trade deficit jumps from $92.8bn to $105.6bn, mkt $102.0bn
700–800BNews96%match79¢
The US trade deficit in August was $105.6 billion, while $102 billion was expected.
900B–1TNews96%match10¢+40%
The US trade deficit in August was $105.6 billion, while $102 billion was expected.
1.1T+News96%match2¢+100%
The US trade deficit in August was $105.6 billion, while $102 billion was expected.
800–900BWalter Bloomberg97%match
U.S. TRADE DEFICIT SURGES TO $105.6 BILLION • • The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August vs. $102 billion expected, up sharply from July’s revised $92.8 billion. • • Imports jumped 4.3% to $420.75 billion, outpacing a 1.4% rise in exports to $315.18 billion. • • The goods deficit hit $136.57 billion, while the services surplus stood at $31 billion.
700–800BWalter Bloomberg97%match79¢
U.S. TRADE DEFICIT SURGES TO $105.6 BILLION • • The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August vs. $102 billion expected, up sharply from July’s revised $92.8 billion. • • Imports jumped 4.3% to $420.75 billion, outpacing a 1.4% rise in exports to $315.18 billion. • • The goods deficit hit $136.57 billion, while the services surplus stood at $31 billion.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.