US Trade Deficit in 2026?1T–1.1T
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
"U.S. goods trade deficit has decreased by 24% between April 2025 when tariffs first went into place, through February 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier. It’s gone down by over 30% with China in particular." • • @USTradeRep Amb. Greer highlights @POTUS' trade wins:
"U.S. goods trade deficit has decreased by 24% between April 2025 when tariffs first went into place, through February 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier. It’s gone down by over 30% with China in particular." • • @USTradeRep Amb. Greer highlights @POTUS' trade wins:
Where does the news lean?
7YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 63% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
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