US Trade Deficit in 2026?900B–1T
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 12% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES12¢
NO89¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US TRADE DEFICIT SURGES PAST FORECASTS • • The US goods-trade deficit widened 17.2% to $118.8B in July, far above the $100.5B forecast and the largest since March 2025. • • Imports jumped 3.7%, driven by the biggest surge in capital-goods shipments since 1993, including computers and semiconductors. • • Exports fell 2.9%, potentially increasing the drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth.
JUST IN: • • Weekly jobless claims: better than expected • • February U.S. trade balance: better than expected • • The trade deficit in 2026 is down 55% relative to the first two months of 2025.
The U.S. trade deficit reached $57.3 billion in February.
MORE U.S. FEB TRADE: CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS UP $7.8 BILLION TO $291.5 BILLION; COMPUTERS ACCOUNT FOR BIGGEST SHARE, UP $5.4 BILLION • #useconomy #trade #internationaltrade #exports #imports #trumptariffs #deficit
MORE U.S. FEB TRADE: GOOD IMPORTS +$14.0 BILLION TO $291.5 BILLION • #useconomy #trade #internationaltrade #exports #imports #trumptariffs #deficit
U.S. FEB DEFICIT +4.9% FROM REVISED JAN DEFICIT OF $57.3 BILLION (VS $54.5 BILLION PREVIOUS RELEASE) • #useconomy #trade #internationaltrade #exports #imports #trumptariffs #deficit
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed by 32% last year, the smallest since 2005. However, as U.S. importers rapidly shifted to other markets such as Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan, the overall U.S. trade deficit actually increased by 2.1%, reaching a record $1.24 trillion.
Where does the news lean?
9YES9NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 63% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
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