Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026<2.0%
Open$978as of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Bond Market 15:00 - Long-term interest rates fall to 2.890%, decline widens after Bank of Japan operations.
Bonds, 12:50 PM: Long-term interest rates fall further to 2.895%; the bid-to-cover ratio for the Bank of Japan's bond purchase operations falls to the 1x range.
The Japanese yen has fallen to its weakest level since 1986 – almost 40 years ago. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to their highest level since 1995, but this was not enough to support the currency. The large gap with US interest rates is driving investors to borrow in yen and invest it outside Japan. Tokyo spent 11.7 trillion yen defending the yen to no avail. The good news is that Japanese goods and cars will become cheaper. #Arabic_Business
Long-term interest rates briefly rose to 2.810%, the highest level in 30 years, in the Tokyo bond market.
"Strong Shock" Shakes Government Bonds: Market Warns of Fiscal Risks as Long-Term Interest Rates Reach 3%
NONews98%match95¢+3%
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: Long-term interest rates are at their highest level in 29 years; we are closely monitoring market trends with a high degree of vigilance.
Bond Market 3pm: Long-term interest rates fall to 2.770%, briefly reaching their highest level since October 1996.
JPN GOVTS – 10yr JGBs highest since 1997 before reversing
Finance Minister Katayama: "Maintaining confidence in the government bond market," long-term interest rates at their highest level in approximately 30 years.
Long-term interest rates briefly rose to 2.81%, the highest level in 30 years, raising concerns about worsening public finances following the Takaichi administration's "Basic Policy Guidelines."
NOReuters99%match95¢+3%
Yield on 10-Year JGB Falls 1.5 Basis Point to 2.765%
Long-term interest rates briefly rose to 2.81%, the highest level in 30 years since 1996, due to concerns about delays in the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes.
Long-term interest rates temporarily reach 2.810%, the highest level in 29 years, raising concerns about inflation; Bank of Japan's attempts to curb interest rate hikes have repercussions.
Long-term interest rates briefly reached 2.810%, the highest level in 29 years; concerns about the Bank of Japan's response.
NOReuters99%match95¢+3%
Yield on 10-Year JGB Falls 0.5 Basis Point to 2.775%
Benchmark JGB yields jump to 30-year high on fiscal concerns
Bonds open at 2.81% long-term interest rate, the highest level in approximately 30 years since 1996.
NOReuters99%match90¢+9%
Yield on 10-Year JGB Rises 5.0 Basis Points to 2.680%
Bonds 11am: Long-term interest rates rise further to 2.665%, as the weaker yen raises inflation.
NOReuters99%match87¢+13%
Yield on 10-Year JGB Rises 1.5 Basis Points to 2.645%
Where does the news lean?
12YES124NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
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