Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 20262.0-2.2%
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Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters92%match98¢
Corrected-Yield on 10-Year (Not 5-Year) JGB Rises 1.0 Basis Points to 3.095%
NOReuters91%match98¢
Yield on 10-Year JGB Rises to 3.085%
Why has Japan become a thermometer for the developments in the Middle East war? The jump in the yield on Japan's 10-year bond to 3.115%, the highest level since 1996, is not just a development in the Tokyo debt market. Japan is one of the largest holders of US Treasuries and one of the largest energy-dependent economies in the Middle East. This makes the Japanese bond market a link between the energy crisis and the US debt market. Hormuz risk enters the Japanese economy through the energy channel: more expensive oil increases import costs and inflationary pressures, and can change expectations about interest rates. The increase in JGB yields, in turn, could affect the flow of Japanese capital to foreign markets. At the same time, oil reached around $107 after the doctors' speech at the UN, and the market continues to price in the risk of continued energy disruption. This pressure has also been transmitted to Europe; Global diesel prices are at record levels, and supply disruptions have increased transportation and production costs. So the chain of crisis moves from Hormuz to oil, diesel and gas, then inflation, interest rates and the bond market. In this context, "resilience" is not just about enduring time; it is the ability to absorb costs that increase every day as the crisis continues. Read the full text in the link below @Nournews_IR
NOReuters94%match98¢
Yield on 10-Year JGB Rises to 3.115%, Highest Since Aug. 1996
First time in 30 years! Japanese 10-year government bond yield hits 3%, Bessant calls for rate hike, global bond market selling pressure spreads.
Bonds, 12:50 PM: Long-term interest rates fall further to 2.895%; the bid-to-cover ratio for the Bank of Japan's bond purchase operations falls to the 1x range.
*Long-term interest rates rose to 2.920%, the highest level since September 13, 1996, for the Tokyo Stock Exchange's benchmark bond issue No. 182.
Where does the news lean?
0YES33NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
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