Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 20263.0%+
Open$7Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 66% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES66¢
NO34¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Treasury buys times for Japanese bonds, but 3% yield barrier is cracking
Long-term interest rates at 30-year high amid expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike and fiscal concerns: "3% is just a stepping stone"
*Market sources at 10-year bond auction: Expectations of the Bank of Japan accelerating its rate of interest rate hikes due to coordinated intervention by Japan and the US spread.
Where does the news lean?
9YES1NO29neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
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