Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of VictorySPD 0-2%
ResolvedOutcome: No$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
How Western media assessed Merz's failure in the elections Reuters: "The results of Sunday's elections may not be a decisive blow for Merz, but his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the victory of the Alternative for Germany in the previous elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt have put his future into question."
Sky News: "If the results are confirmed after the official announcement, it will be the CDU's lowest result in any state since World War II and below the 5 percent threshold needed for a party to enter the state parliament."
CNN:
"The results worsen Merz's already difficult situation. Some believe there is only one possible outcome in this situation - a 'change of chancellor'."
Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | English: Android [in reply to: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU failed to enter a state parliament for the first time. The Christian Democratic Union failed to clear the 5% threshold in the elections to the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament. The party received 4.9% of the vote, the regional electoral commission reported. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in the lead with 38.2%. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is in second place with 35.5% of the vote. Merz has already called the CDU's result a disaster. According to him, the party was squeezed and effectively ground up in the confrontation between the SPD and AfD. This is the worst result for the CDU in the entire history of Germany. European Union Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS Application | [Android]
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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