Next leader out of power before 2027?Takaichi - Japan PM
ResolvedOutcome: No$426Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOThe Economist98%match98¢+2%
Support for Takaichi Sanae’s administration remains unusually elevated for a Japanese government at this stage in its term. Yet she will need to inspire voters to back her party
YESBloomberg99%match5¢-100%
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s approval ratings saw a slight dip in several polls conducted over the weekend, indicating the riskiness of her decision to call a snap election in early February
NOThe Economist99%match95¢+5%
Calling a snap election is a gamble aimed at consolidating power while Takaichi Sanae’s popularity remains high. The Japanese prime minister’s confidence is immense
NOThe Economist99%match94¢+6%
If her party manages to win back its outright majority in the lower house, Takaichi Sanae will have a freer hand to pursue her preferred policies. Though she will still be constrained in the upper house
YESReuters99%match8¢-100%
Japan PM Takaichi to call Feb 8 snap election on spending, tax cuts and defence
NOVisegrád 2499%match96¢+4%
BREAKING: Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi calls snap elections for February 8th to capitalize on her high approval rating: She will campaign on her new security strategy of speeding up Japan’s military build-up in order to counter Chinese aggression
YESVisegrád 2499%match3¢-100%
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has announced plans to dissolve parliament and call a snap election for February 8. Takaichi is seeking voter support for increased government spending and a new security strategy expected to accelerate Japan’s defense build-up. The…
YESBBC News (World)99%match3¢-100%
Japan PM Takaichi set to call snap election
Where does the news lean?
9YES13NO33neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for Next leader out of power before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.