Next leader out of power before 2027?Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
ResolvedOutcome: No$654Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESPolymarket98%match7¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader now projected, again, to lose power this year, as Trump weighs intervention options.
NOThe Economist99%match93¢+8%
For now, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still calls the shots. He can count on a base who backed a hardliner in the last election—and a larger group that may yet prefer tyranny to chaos
YESThe Wall Street Journal99%match6¢-100%
Iran’s supreme leader has remained in power longer than any other contemporary Middle Eastern ruler. Now he’s running out of road.
YESBBC News (World)99%match6¢-100%
What next for Iran's Supreme Leader?
YESOverton99%match20¢-100%
BREAKING: 69% chance Iran’s Supreme leader is out this year, an all-time high.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match17¢-100%
Will Kahameni be out as supreme leader of Iran by the end of 2026? Polymarket odds surged to past 60 percent, as content grows and potential for Israeli or US strikes mount.
What do you think? [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader now projected to lose power this year, as he threatens U.S. troops in the region. The odds have surged past 60%.
YESPolymarket98%match27¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader now projected to lose power this year, as he threatens U.S. troops in the region. The odds have surged past 60%.
YESOSINTdefender99%match27¢-100%
Chances on Polymarket’s betting market that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of the year are continuing to explode, with trader’s predictions currently sitting at 62% and likely to rise as anti-government protests continue across Iran.
YESLeading Report99%match26¢-100%
BREAKING: 61% chance Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026.
YESPolymarket99%match32¢-100%
JUST IN: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to be overthrown, as odds hit record 60% overnight.
YESPolymarket99%match32¢-100%
JUST IN: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to be overthrown, as odds hit record 60% overnight.
YESOSINTdefender99%match39¢-100%
As ongoing nationwide anti-government demonstrations across Iran continue to grow, the chances on Polymarket that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran have skyrocketed, with traders predicting that there is a 56% chance that Khamenei will be out by the end…
YESPolymarket99%match32¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader is projected to be removed from power. 55% chance he's dethroned this year.
Where does the news lean?
15YES5NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Next leader out of power before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.