Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Pope Leo XIV

OpenVol$815KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YEScnn.com99%match4¢-25%
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope — and a fierce critic of the war with Iran
YESnbcnews.com99%match4¢-25%
Pope Leo blasts ‘delusion of omnipotence’ fueling the US-Israeli war in Iran
YESdbws.io99%match4¢-25%
Pope Leo Calls Threat Against Iranian Civilization 'Truly Unacceptable' -- WSJ
YESafp.com99%match4¢-25%
Pope Leo slams 'unacceptable' threat to Iranian population
YESafp.com99%match4¢-25%
Pope Leo slams threat to entire Iran population as 'unacceptable'
YESwashingtonpost.com99%match4¢-25%
On Easter, Pope Leo delivers commanding message of peace to a world at war
YESwashingtonpost.com99%match4¢-25%
As U.S. bombs Iran, Pope Leo criticizes the idea of a ‘God of war’
YESfoxnews.com99%match6¢-50%
Pope Leo urges war leaders to halt fighting after deadly strike on school sparks outrage

Where does the news lean?

81YES0NO5neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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See all outcomes for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.

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