Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Donald Trump
Open$4.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Jean-Pierre Raffarin sur Donald Trump: "Je ne crois pas qu'on puisse avoir le prix Nobel de la paix et participer aux assassinats"
YESFirst Squawk98%match12¢-83%
Trump: On February 19th, 2026, I will again be joined by Board of Peace Members at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C., where we will announce that Member States have pledged more than $5 BILLION DOLLARS toward the Gaza Humanitarian and Reconstruction…
YESPolymarket99%match14¢-86%
[Replying to @billmaher] @billmaher Trump is currently the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize frontrunner at 14%. > If Trump somehow gets Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran all to fall, he should get a Nobel Peace Prize.
NOCGTN America99%match87¢+13%
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly enraged after being denied the Nobel Peace Prize, warning NATO allies that he is no longer thinking “purely about peace.”
NOTIME99%match86¢+14%
Trump says no need ‘to think purely of peace’ in letter to Norway about Nobel Prize loss, Greenland ambitions
NOBloomberg99%match86¢+14%
Donald Trump links his claims on Greenland to not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prizein a letter sent to the Norwegian prime minister
NOThe Spectator Index99%match86¢+14%
BREAKING: Trump sent letter to Norway's prime minister saying he no longer has an 'obligation to think purely of peace' and will prioritise American interests because he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
YESPolymarket99%match13¢-85%
BREAKING: Trump announces formation of "Board of Peace" for the Middle East. 13% chance he wins this year's Nobel Peace Prize.
NOAxios99%match87¢+13%
Machado's Nobel Peace Prize offer to Trump rejected by award organizers
YESBreaking91199%match17¢-88%
Scott Jennings predicts President Trump could win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize if he helps broker an end to the Russia‑Ukraine war, suggesting that successfully resolving the conflict might earn him the prestigious award.
YESLeading Report99%match17¢-88%
BREAKING: President Trump will get the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 by solving Russia-Ukraine, Scott Jennings predicts.
NOThe Economist98%match82¢+20%
The president may be pleased to see his name on the Institute of Peace building. But the Nobel Committee would be wise, for now, to keep dangling its own prize just beyond his grasp
YESAcyn98%match18¢-89%
Leavitt: The president has proven over the past year he's more than worthy of the Nobel peace prize. He’s solved nine conflicts.
NOBloomberg99%match82¢+20%
Trump’s claims about ending eight wars in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize have never quite added up
NOTIME98%match82¢+20%
In places Trump has touted bringing peace, conflict still rages
Where does the news lean?
16YES22NO30neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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See all outcomes for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.