How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Above 50
Open$49Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Senate voted 49-50 against the Clarity Act, so what happens next? • - One Republican Senate aide told me that they think the bill is dead. • - But Rep. Thom Tillis, who initially voted yes and then changed it to no, did so as part of a procedural process to potentially vote on the bill again. • - However, others voted no to the bill, including a surprise from Sen. Gillibrand (have not heard back yet on why) • • But time is running out as elections loom in November.... • • More here:
'This one stings': Clarity Act fails procedural Senate vote — is crypto's biggest regulatory push dead?
Crypto in Congress: The Clarity Act goes down 49-50 with World Liberty Financial (WLF) and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency cited. What about Revolut? zerohash?
Senators voted 49-50 to reject the so-called Clarity Act • • Every Democrat voted against the measure. Three Republicans - Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Jerry Moran of Kansas - also voted against the measure. • • If Dems sweep, data centers are next.
NEW: The Clarity Act has failed to advance in the Senate after falling short of the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture. • • It did not even secure 50 votes.
Coinbase, Grayscale See U.S. Crypto Regulatory Clarity Advancing Even If CLARITY Act Stalls • • Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that the CLARITY Act is close to securing enough Senate support, with remaining disagreements largely focused on issues such as ethics provisions. The bill is expected to face a key Senate vote on Sept. 15, where clearing the 60-vote threshold remains the main hurdle. Armstrong said passage could unlock more institutional capital and support products such as tokenized equities in the U.S. • • Separately, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said regulatory clarity is already improving even without CLARITY, citing progress on stablecoins, token issuance, tokenized securities and regulated perpetual futures. Both argued that even if the bill fails in 2026, the SEC and CFTC could still move forward with rules that provide the crypto industry with a clearer regulatory framework.
Where does the news lean?
7YES20NO28neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Senators voting "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027 is above the number specified in this market's title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Above" means strictly greater than the number specified in the title. For example, a market titled "Above 58" will resolve to "Yes" only if 59 or more Senators vote "Yea".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote must be a vote on final passage of the bill conducted in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. Not every Senator needs to have participated in the vote. The first vote on final passage will be used for resolution regardless of whether the bill passes on that vote; subsequent votes on passage — including any re-vote following a motion to reconsider, or a vote on a conference report or House-amended version — will not be considered.
If no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". If qualifying legislation passes the Senate before January 1, 2027 without a prior recorded vote on final passage (e.g., passage by voice vote or unanimous consent), this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of the number specified in this market's title.
Once the result of the vote has been announced, any subsequent request by a Senator to add, remove, or change a vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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