How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Above 64
Open$15Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Senate voted 49-50 against the Clarity Act, so what happens next? • - One Republican Senate aide told me that they think the bill is dead. • - But Rep. Thom Tillis, who initially voted yes and then changed it to no, did so as part of a procedural process to potentially vote on the bill again. • - However, others voted no to the bill, including a surprise from Sen. Gillibrand (have not heard back yet on why) • • But time is running out as elections loom in November.... • • More here:
'This one stings': Clarity Act fails procedural Senate vote — is crypto's biggest regulatory push dead?
BREAKING: Senate fails to invoke cloture on H.R. 3633 (Clarity Act). Supporters fall well short of the 60 votes needed to end debate and advance the bill.
NEW: The Clarity Act has failed to advance in the Senate after falling short of the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture. • • It did not even secure 50 votes.
Where does the news lean?
0YES15NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Senators voting "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027 is above the number specified in this market's title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Above" means strictly greater than the number specified in the title. For example, a market titled "Above 58" will resolve to "Yes" only if 59 or more Senators vote "Yea".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote must be a vote on final passage of the bill conducted in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. Not every Senator needs to have participated in the vote. The first vote on final passage will be used for resolution regardless of whether the bill passes on that vote; subsequent votes on passage — including any re-vote following a motion to reconsider, or a vote on a conference report or House-amended version — will not be considered.
If no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". If qualifying legislation passes the Senate before January 1, 2027 without a prior recorded vote on final passage (e.g., passage by voice vote or unanimous consent), this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of the number specified in this market's title.
Once the result of the vote has been announced, any subsequent request by a Senator to add, remove, or change a vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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