Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Venezuela abandons Nicolás Maduro to fate in US jail
Eight months after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces, a new round of talks between the government and the opposition is underway with the aim of a democratic transition in the country. Venezuelan journalist Victor Amaya said that although public optimism reached around 80 percent after Maduro's ouster, the pace of change has been slower than expected and is now around 50 percent. He added that despite a relative easing of repression and a more open media environment, the main power structure and ruling political groups in Venezuela have not changed much.
Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to face trial next June
As Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro is back in court for a pretrial hearing in his US drug trafficking case, we sit down with Venezuelan opposition leader @leopoldolopez to discuss what's next for Venezuela. • • "We are not where we want to be, because we hope for a fully free, democratic, and prosperous Venezuela, but without the removal of Maduro, without Maduro facing justice, and opening that possibility, that would have been impossible" - Lopez tells @TracySabolDC. • • @NEWSMAX
A large crowd has gathered outside the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, where Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores are expected to appear. Holding signs, the protesters expressed their support for the presidential couple, who were kidnapped by U.S. forces on January 3.
Who rules Venezuela after the arrest of its former president, Nicolás Maduro?
@ReemaAHamdieh
Where does the news lean?
0YES8NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 79% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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