Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Donald Trump
Open$3Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US President Donald Trump: We took control of Venezuela and Maduro in just 148 minutes... and we will fill the US strategic reserves with Venezuelan oil for free. #FromTheEvent
US President Donald Trump: We took control of Venezuela and Maduro in just 148 minutes... and we will fill the US strategic reserves with Venezuelan oil for free.
'There will be elections in Venezuela,' interim leader tells UN • • Venezuela's Interim President, Delcy Rodriguez, says there will be elections in the country after thanking US President Donald Trump for resuming diplomatic relations, during her speech at the UN General Assembly.
Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodríguez thanks US President Donald Trump for resuming relations between Washington and Caracas
Acting Venezuela leader thanks US President Donald Trump for "readiness to resume the course of diplomatic relations."
NOReuters92%match100¢
Venezuela Acting President Delcy Rodriguez Tells UNGA: Thanks US President Donald Trump for Resuming Diplomatic Ties
Live: #VENEZUELA Donald Trump believes Venezuela is "not yet ready" to hold elections, nine months after the United States intervened to capture former president Nicolas Maduro...
Live: #VENEZUELA Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, thanked Donald Trump for the oil agreement concluded between her country and the United States, which she said will bring "well-being" to the country...
US President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that the United States has reached an agreement with Venezuela that he called "the largest oil deal in the history of the world." Under the deal, the US will take control of the majority of Venezuela's more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, with private sector participation, at no cost to US taxpayers, Trump said. He added that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Secretary of War Pete Hegsett, along with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez, played a role in reaching the agreement. Trump said the deal would more than double US oil reserves, significantly increase oil supply and help lower gasoline prices for Americans in the long term.
BREAKING NEWS: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future, while helping to continue to set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity. This Transaction will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States! Thank you for your attention to this groundbreaking matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
Where does the news lean?
11YES22NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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