Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Mark Warner
Open$52Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Several Democrats who may have been on the fence in passing the bill, including Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker and Mark Warner, ultimately voted against the Clarity Act. • • In a statement shortly after the procedural vote, Warner said a bill could not move forward that would allow the president to profit personally from the crypto industry. • • "We got close to resolving some of the toughest outstanding issues around law enforcement and national security, but ultimately, the failure to address this fundamental conflict of interest made it impossible for me to support moving forward," Warner said in the statement. "That is why I voted no today." • •
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.