Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Odds fell to 10% on Sep 14, 2026

OpenMove

Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? On , the market’s odds fell from 21.5¢ to 9.5¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Punchbowl Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match21.5¢
+5m21.5¢
+30m16¢
+1h9.5¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoPunchbowl Reporter94%match
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) on Clarity Act: “I don’t think the ethics provision is near enough.”

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 19% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES19¢
NO82¢

Vol$3K

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Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.