Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Odds jumped to 84% on Jul 7, 2026
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Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 29.5¢ to 83.5¢ (+54 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from French Media.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 33.5¢ → 83.5¢+50 ptsafter a signal from French Media
- 49.5¢ → 83.5¢+34 ptsafter a signal from israelnews23
- 49.5¢ → 83.5¢+34 ptsafter a signal from Al Jazeera
- 74¢ → 83.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from French Media
- 74¢ → 83.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from bild.de
- 74¢ → 83.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from bfmtv.com
- 52.5¢ → 83.5¢+31 ptsafter a signal from French Media
- 52¢ → 83.5¢+31.5 ptsafter a signal from bfmtv.com
- 52.5¢ → 83.5¢+31 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 87% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.