Venezuela leader end of 2026?Marco Rubio
Open$1.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Venezuela will require a transition phase with free and fair elections, emphasizing the need for patience. • • More Here →
NOVisegrád 2499%match99¢+1%
U.S. Security of State Marco Rubio on Venezuela: "Venezuela is much better off today than it was six weeks ago. [...] I think everyone can now agree that Venezuela has an opportunity for a new future that didn't exist six weeks ago."
NOBreaking91199%match99¢+1%
Sec. Rubio in Munich: "Venezuela is much better off today than it was six weeks ago... I think everyone can now agree that Venezuela has an opportunity at a new future that wasn't there six weeks ago."
NOReuters98%match100¢
Venezuela to move just-freed opposition politician to house arrest
NOReuters99%match100¢
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Venezuela's new leaders were moving toward closer ties with Washington, leaving no immediate need for further US military action, as he publicly faced lawmakers' questions for the first time since President Nicolas Maduro's capture this month…
NOReuters99%match100¢
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Venezuela's new leaders were moving toward closer ties with the US, leaving no immediate need for further military action, as he publicly faced lawmakers' questions for the first time since President Maduro's capture
NOThe White House99%match100¢
“The end state here is we want to reach a phase of transition where we are left with a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela. ” — @SecRubio
NOBloomberg99%match99¢+1%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio tells senators that the US is prepared to use force to ensure that Venezuela's new leader cooperates with the American agenda
NOPolymarket99%match99¢+1%
[Replying to @CollinRugg] @CollinRugg 1% chance he gains another job. > JUST IN: President Trump has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to yet another job. “I am appointing Miami native Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Chair the efforts of coordinating and advancing this exciting opportunity to convene the World.”
NOVisegrád 2498%match99¢+1%
U.S. SecState Marco Rubio on Venezuela: "They are not generating any revenue from their oil right now. They can't move it unless we allow it to move. Because we have sanctions, because we're enforcing those sanctions. This is tremendous leverage."
NOJennifer Griffin99%match99¢+1%
Breaking news: US secretary of state Marco Rubio has laid out a series of demands that Washington expects Venezuela’s remaining rulers to meet, saying it would weigh its next steps with Caracas based on whether the conditions were met
Where does the news lean?
1YES17NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 74% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
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