Venezuela leader end of 2026?María Corina Machado
Open$1.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Venezuela transition talks set to kick off without Machado
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who is in exile, was denied entry to her homeland, The New York Times reports. She had planned to return to Venezuela from Panama to help with relief efforts following the recent earthquakes. Ms. Machado had wanted to use the island of Curaçao as a transit point, but Dutch authorities denied her entry after the United States refused to vouch for the politician. The White House and State Department deemed the opposition leader's actions an ill-timed "political stunt" that could destabilize Venezuela. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
The Donald Trump administration has refused to facilitate the return of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado to her homeland following a devastating earthquake, Axios reported, citing sources. Machado appealed to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other American officials to help her return to Venezuela and to provide her with a role in the distribution of humanitarian aid. However, Washington believed she was trying to use American aid for "political PR" and rejected her requests. As The New York Times notes, the Trump administration is focusing on stability and cooperation with the current Venezuelan authorities. According to the newspaper, Machado also attempted to enter the country through the Netherlands, but local authorities denied her entry without US support. On the night of June 25, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1-7.5 struck Venezuela. The most severe consequences were recorded in the states of Yaracuy, Carabobo, Aragua, Miranda, and Trujillo, as well as in the capital district of Caracas and the city of La Guaira. At least 3,360 people were injured, and 3,142 families lost their homes. The death toll has risen to 1,430 people. More IZ RU news in MAX
U.S. Undercuts Venezuela’s Opposition Leader as She Tries to Return
[Venesu Earthquake] Nobel Prize Winner Opposition Leader Machado Fails to Return Home… "Government Obstructed"
YESPOLITICO98%match13¢-85%
Venezuelan opposition leader @MariaCorinaYA told our @DashaBurns she believes the country's elections "could be done in nine to 10 months," but she hasn't yet spoken with Trump about starting that process. Full interview on #TheConversation:
YESReuters99%match17¢-88%
Trump considers role in Venezuela for Machado
YESBBC News (World)99%match18¢-89%
Machado vows to lead Venezuela 'when right time comes'
NOAxios99%match79¢+24%
Why Trump hasn't backed Machado to lead Venezuela
YESFinancialJuice99%match19¢-89%
Trump: Machado may be involved with some aspect of running Venezuela.
YESBloomberg99%match14¢-86%
Venezuela released a close ally of opposition leader María Corina Machado, a gesture of the interim government’s cooperation with the Trump administration
NOThe Economist99%match86¢+14%
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s leading opposition figure, has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead
YESReuters99%match14¢-86%
Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's exiled opposition leader, has vowed to return home, declaring her movement ready to win free elections. Listen to the latest on Reuters World News
YESBloomberg99%match14¢-86%
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said she believes the US has told acting president Delcy Rodríguez to take steps toward an eventual handover of power
Where does the news lean?
22YES19NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
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