Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?María Corina Machado
Open$55Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Meanwhile, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's senior advisor says that during the last 24 hours, MCM has been denied entry into Venezuela three times. "She has attempted to enter the country by air and sea but has been turned away each time." - David Smolansky • Senior Advisor to María Corina Machado
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado tried three times in the past 24 hours to return home…. The attempts came as acting President Delcy Rodríguez visited New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where she met with President Trump. •
Meanwhile, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's senior advisor says that during the last 24 hours, MCM has been denied entry into Venezuela three times. "She has attempted to enter the country by air and sea but has been turned away each time." - David Smolansky • Senior Advisor to María Corina Machado
Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Marina Corina Machado prevented from returning to Venezuela
Live: Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader in exile in Panama, was prevented from returning to her country yesterday, AFP learned from sources within her political party, Vente Venezuela...
Opposition leader María Corina Machado was prevented from returning to Venezuela
#Video Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Collina Machado told the Wall Street Journal that she can't wait any longer. The Trump administration has signed a major oil deal with the Rodriguez government. In an interview prior to the announcement of the deal, Machado detailed her plans to push for a democratic transition in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the U.S.
Venezuela transition talks set to kick off without Machado
Trump denies role in María Corina Machado’s failed return to Venezuela
Where does the news lean?
0YES19NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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