Next leader out of power before 2027?Abbas - President of Palestine

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$307KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOdropsitenews99%match99¢+1%
Abbas Loyalists Sweep Unchallenged Palestinian Municipal Elections • • Palestinians voted Saturday in their first municipal elections since the 2007 Fatah-Hamas split, with final results announced Sunday by the Palestinian Central Elections Commission, according to WAFA. The vote marked the first electoral exercise of any kind in Gaza in two decades, restricted to just one city. • • ➤ Commission head Rami Hamdallah said 522,000 voters cast ballots, with turnout at 54 percent in the West Bank. Salfit saw the highest turnout at 71 percent, and women won 33 percent of seats. • • ➤ The Gaza vote was restricted to Deir al-Balah, the only area not fully invaded by Israeli ground forces, with about 70,000 eligible voters, less than five percent of Gaza’s population. Turnout there was just 23 percent, compared to 56 percent in the occupied West Bank, according to Al Jazeera. • • ➤ Hamas was excluded from running. A November 2025 decree by Mahmoud Abbas required candidates to commit to PLO agreements with Israel, effectively barring Hamas and other resistance factions under pressure from the U.S., EU, and Israel. (Drop Site reported the news in December 2025 - linked below). • • ➤ Fatah-aligned lists swept the West Bank, often running unopposed. In several cities, including Nablus and Ramallah, only one list was submitted and automatically won without a vote. • • ➤ In Deir al-Balah, Gaza, a Fatah-backed list won 6 of 15 seats. Two independent groups took most of the remaining seats, while a list seen as aligned with Hamas secured just two. Hamas supported the process logistically, deploying over 500 personnel and calling it “an important step.” • • ➤ Despite Hamas’ exclusion, Gaza police secured sites with armed guards, CNN reported. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem called the vote “an important and necessary step” and called for presidential and legislative elections to follow. • • ➤ Low turnout in Gaza was also linked to mass displacement, an outdated voter registry, and daily survival pressures, Al Jazeera’s Hind Khoudary reported. Israeli restrictions also delayed delivery of ballot equipment and destroyed schools forcing polling stations into tents. • • The Palestinian Authority described the Gaza vote as a symbolic “pilot” to signal political continuity between West Bank and Gaza. Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, the head of the Palestinian National Initiative, said the process is “not a substitute” for long-delayed presidential and legislative elections. Polling continues to show Hamas remains the most popular faction across both Gaza and the West Bank. • • Video: APT
NOalarabiya_eng99%match99¢+1%
Loyalists of President Mahmoud Abbas won most races in Palestinian municipal elections, election officials say, in a vote that for the first time in nearly two decades included a city in the Gaza Strip run by rival Hamas. • •
NOavikaner99%match99¢+1%
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, serving in the 21st year of his 4-year term, voted in the Ramallah municipal elections today.
NOJordanian Media99%match99¢+1%
Watch | The moment Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas arrived to cast his vote in the local elections #Palestine #Here_is_the_Kingdom

Where does the news lean?

1YES8NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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