Next leader out of power before 2027?Macron - France President
ResolvedOutcome: No$213Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Ten years in power is a time that changes not only the country but also the politician himself. Emmanuel Macron makes no secret of the fact that the end of his second term is difficult. He must simultaneously defend his achievements and acknowledge his mistakes, and here, one clearly contradicts the other. He cannot legally seek a third term; he will have to take stock. A year before the new presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron promised the French a separation without sorrow. During a visit to Cyprus, he told schoolchildren that after leaving the Élysée Palace, he would "no longer engage in politics." Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, wonders whether this will definitely not happen and who will be his successor in the elections. Subscribe to Kommersant on Telegram | MAX | Leave boosts
French President Emmanuel Macron and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sign a strategic Defense partnership in Athens.
French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Paris.
France turns to 2027 race to succeed Macron
Emmanuel Macron sera en déplacement mercredi sur le chantier du prochain porte-avions français •
Where does the news lean?
2YES21NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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