Israel Election: Likud # of seats?<20
Open$40Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 15% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES15¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Amit Segal
News 12 Poll: If the elections were held today, the Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and the Yesh Party led by Gadi Eisenkot would be the two largest parties in Israel with 23 seats each. For the Likud, this is an increase of one seat compared to the previous poll.
Maariv poll gives Israeli opposition a majority to form a government The Israeli opposition wins 62 seats in the Knesset compared to 48 for Netanyahu's bloc The poll shows the opposition surpassing the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government for the first time in 9 months Netanyahu's Likud party drops to 22 seats, tied with Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party 55 percent of Israelis doubt the government's ability to make sound decisions until the elections The poll comes hours after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and set a date for early elections
Where does the news lean?
5YES5NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
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