Israel Election: Likud # of seats?20-24
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Odds now
The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES30¢
NO71¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Likud falls to its lowest level, Eisenkot surpasses Netanyahu. A poll conducted by the Lazar Institute and published in Maariv newspaper: Likud would win 20 seats in the Knesset, a loss of 12 seats from its current representation.
Eisenkot continues to lead Netanyahu in election polls According to the poll, if the elections were held today, the "Yashar!" party would take first place with 24 seats, which is an increase of one seat compared to the previous assessment. The Likud party is also in second place with 23 seats; at the same time, the opposition coalition with a total of 57 seats is still not able to win a majority in the Knesset (parliament) at this stage. When respondents were asked which party they would vote for if elections were held under the current circumstances, the "Yashar!" party came in first place with 24 seats. The Likud party took second place with 23 seats, and the official camp coalition came in third with 14 seats. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus
Zionist regime | Eisenkot is still in the lead According to the poll, if the elections were held today, the "Yashar!" party would take first place with 24 seats, which represents an increase of one seat compared to the previous assessment. The Likud party is also in second place with 23 seats. At the same time, the opposition coalition with a total of 57 seats is still unable to win a majority in the Knesset (parliament) at this stage. When asked which party they would vote for if elections were held under the current conditions, the poll participants said that the "Yashar!" party came in first place with 24 seats. The Likud party took second place with 23 seats, and the official camp coalition came in third with 14 seats. tasnimnews.ir/3675147
@TasnimNews
Amit Segal
News 12 Poll: If the elections were held today, the Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and the Yesh Party led by Gadi Eisenkot would be the two largest parties in Israel with 23 seats each. For the Likud, this is an increase of one seat compared to the previous poll.
#Breaking | Poll: The "Yeshar" party, led by former Israeli Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is ahead with 23 seats compared to 22 seats for the "Likud" party, led by Netanyahu (Maariv)
Results of a poll published by the Maariv newspaper: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, while the Yesh Atid party leads. The opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
#Breaking | Poll: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, and the Yesh Atid party leads, while the opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government (Maariv)
Amit Segal
News 12 Poll: If the elections were held today, Yashar! Led by Eisenkot, it would be the largest party in Israel with 24 seats - one more than the poll published last week. Likud, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is also gaining in seats, and is in second place with 23 seats. Together, led by Bennett, is losing seats, and stands at 15 seats.
Where does the news lean?
9YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
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