Next leader out of power before 2027?Starmer - UK PM
ResolvedOutcome: No$831Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NEW: Keir Starmer’s Chief Secretary says the PM will not resign • • He says Starmer did not knowingly or unknowingly mislead Parliament • • “You need a credible, reliable, strong Prime Minister to be able to take the country through difficult challenges”
Starmer's chief secretary: PM won't resign and didn't mislead Parliament
Starmer refuses to quit over Mandelson scandal
Starmer 'hasn't misled parliament', says chief sec to PM
Starmer will be relieved that the vibe among Labour MPs tonight seems to be that they believe the PM and blame the civil service. • • Both Chris Curtis and Barry Gardiner on @BBCNewsnight angrier with Foreign Office than Starmer, suggesting Olly Robbins should be the one to resign.
Where does the news lean?
28YES18NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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