Next leader out of power before 2027?Starmer - UK PM
ResolvedOutcome: No$593Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESBloomberg99%match1¢-100%
Keir Starmer’s rivals were looking for a pretext to mount a leadership challenge. The prime minister impeded one would-be successor this weekend but in doing so may have given others the reason they need to strike.
YESBloomberg99%match1¢-100%
Keir Starmer is bracing for a potential showdown with a key left-wing rival in a test of the British prime minister’s power to stave off the gathering threats to his job
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
If Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wants to mount a leadership challenge against UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer he faces a number of obstacles that make for a tricky route to power
Where does the news lean?
3YES1NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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