Jerome Powell departs as Fed ChairMay 15

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$40KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESInfluential Chinese Blogger99%match18¢-100%
[#Powell's 8-Year Term Ends#, #What Legacy Did Powell Leave for the Fed#?] On May 15th, current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's eight-year term will end. It is widely believed that his political legacy can be summarized in two points: combating persistently high inflation and maintaining the Fed's independence. Looking back over the past eight years, Powell's tenure has been more turbulent than most previous Federal Reserve chairs. He had to deal with unprecedented "alarm fires," such as the global pandemic and multiple geopolitical conflicts. He led the Fed through a regional banking crisis that triggered allegations of regulatory laxity and internal ethics scandals that led to the resignations of senior officials. Derek Tang, co-founder of policy analytics firm LH Meyer/monetary policy Analytics, said the story of the Federal Reserve’s independence—making interest rate and monetary policy decisions based on economic data rather than political pressure from the White House—may still be in its “first chapter.” Vincent Reinhart, a former senior Federal Reserve official and now chief economist at BYN Investments, said it's not uncommon for the legacy of Federal Reserve chairmen to take years to fully materialize after leaving office; for example, market assessments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's political legacy have changed dramatically since the initial assessments. "Therefore, I never rush to rate a Fed chairman; perhaps five or ten years later would be more appropriate," he said. [Link to webpage]
YESCNN Reporter99%match27¢-100%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is on his last few days as head of the US central bank, with his term expiring May 15. • • In a press conference this afternoon (his final appearance as Fed chair) he said that he will stay on as governor for a brief period: • • To which Trump reacted with:
NOkatelyn_caralle99%match60¢+67%
Don't think Trump's going to be happy about this one... • • Outgoing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his press conference today that he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends on May 15. • • "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair." • • "I will not leave the board until this investigation is fully resolved with transparency and finality. I’m encouraged by recent developments and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve."

Where does the news lean?

2YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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