How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 5%
Open$314Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Inflation peaked in May as energy prices fell in June, Kalshi traders think
Inflation peaked in May as energy prices fell in June, Kalshi traders think
FED'S WARSH: IF ANYONE THOUGHT WE'D BE HAPPY WITH INFLATION ABOVE 2%, THEY WILL BE DISAPPOINTED
JUST IN: Traders on Polymarket are now projecting that inflation will rise above 4% for the first time since 2022.
NOWalter Bloomberg98%match89¢+4%
BRENT OIL TO STAY HIGH SHORT-TERM, SLIDE BELOW $80 BY YEAR-END – EIA • • Brent oil likely above $95/bbl over the next 2 months due to Middle East tensions; expected to drop to $70/bbl by end-2026. • • U.S. oil production projected at 13.6 mln bpd in 2026, rising to 13.8 mln bpd in 2027. • • Strait of Hormuz disruption will cut Middle East output temporarily; gradual recovery expected. • • U.S. gasoline prices forecast at $3.34/gal in 2026, $3.18/gal in 2027. • • OPEC+ unlikely to boost production significantly next year; global supply to exceed demand once Hormuz flows resume. • • Global inventories set to grow by 1.9 mln bpd in 2026 and 3.0 mln bpd in 2027.
NOPolymarket98%match93¢
[Replying to @SenWarren] @SenWarren 29% chance inflation goes above 3% in 2026. >
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match91¢+2%
Inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth is solid. But after years of high prices and with new risks emerging, declarations of victory feel premature.
NOFirst Squawk98%match91¢+2%
FED’S WILLIAMS: EXPECTS INFLATION TO MOVE TO 2.5% IN 2026, 2% IN 2027
NOFinancialJuice98%match91¢+2%
Fed's Williams: I expect inflation to move to 2.5% in 2026, 2% in 2027.
Where does the news lean?
3YES14NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for How high will inflation get in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.