How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 3%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$280Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
JUST IN: Traders on Polymarket are now projecting that inflation will rise above 4% for the first time since 2022.
Get ready for more of these calls. • • Deutsche Bank on if the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates this year because of Iran war driven inflation: • • "With global central banks shifting in a hawkish direction, a question that was almost unthinkable two weeks ago is now being more heavily debated: Could the Fed raise rates in 2026?" • • Reason Why #1 • "First, downside risks to the labor market need to be eliminated. The past two years have shown that the Fed is responsive to weak labor market conditions and downside risks even in the face of elevated inflation. Hikes likely require something more, though. In particular, the labor market likely needs to re-tighten – e.g., with the unemployment rate falling back towards 4%, quits rising, and wages accelerating, among other conditions – and, therefore, return as a source of inflationary pressures." • • Reason Why #2 • "Second, core PCE likely needs to show evidence of accelerating noticeably above 3%. Furthermore, the source of the rise cannot be readily identifiable as a shock that is likely to prove transitory even in • the absence of tighter monetary policy (e.g., tariffs or oil). Of course, there may be thresholds for core inflation where the source of the rise is down-weighted. Nonetheless, to get to hikes the Fed would have to • discard a strongly held narrative that a disinflationary trend is in place and that once one-off shocks dissipate inflation will be close to 2%. This would take a compelling story. Clearly, realization of the first point (a re-tightening labor market) would be one reason to reconsider fundamental assumptions about the disinflation trend."
NOfinancialjuice98%match27¢-100%
DIW: Expects inflation rate at 2.4% for 2026, 2.3% in 2027
NONews98%match27¢-100%
Diw Says It Expects Inflation Rate at 2.4% for 2026, 2.3% in 2027
NOFirst Squawk98%match33¢-100%
FED’S WILLIAMS: EXPECTS INFLATION TO MOVE TO 2.5% IN 2026, 2% IN 2027
YESFinancialJuice98%match68¢+47%
Fed's Hammack: Inflation is too high, stuck closer to 3% than 2%.
Where does the news lean?
3YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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