How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 3.5%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$177Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US Core Inflation Rises to 7-Month High • • U.S. headline CPI rose 3.8% year over year in April (not seasonally adjusted), above the 3.7% market estimate. Core CPI rose 2.8% year over year, above the 2.7% estimate, while core CPI increased 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% estimate.
Now, US CPI inflation has risen to 3.3%, the highest since February 2024. • • Our models suggest US CPI inflation will top 3.5% by as soon as next month. • • As a result, the UMich Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level on record, at 47.6. • • The global economy has shifted.
JUST IN: Traders on Polymarket are now projecting that inflation will rise above 4% for the first time since 2022.
Where does the news lean?
3YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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