How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 4.5%
Open$171Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO88¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Officials at the Fed broadly contend that the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressures. Instead, they point to the energy shock caused by the war in Iran and the buildout of infrastructure stemming from the boom in artificial intelligence as new catalysts. In June, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3 percent for the month, or 3.5 percent compared to the same time last year.
FED'S WARSH: IF ANYONE THOUGHT WE'D BE HAPPY WITH INFLATION ABOVE 2%, THEY WILL BE DISAPPOINTED
Inflation is at risk of remaining above target despite the U.S. and Iran agreeing to end their war in the Middle East, a top European central banker warned on Tuesday. • • Speaking to CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said there is a probability inflation “will stay at an elevated level.” • • Read more:
Where does the news lean?
6YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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