Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds fell to 12% on Oct 4, 2026

OpenMoveOct 4, 2026, 20:06 UTC

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? On Oct 4, 2026, 20:06 UTC, the market’s odds fell from 67¢ to 12¢ (-55 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from apnews.com.

How did the odds move?

At match67¢

+5m65.5¢

+30m52.5¢

+1h12¢

1h move-55 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralapnews.com96%match

[UPDATE] Brazilians voted for next president as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro hope for first round victory (first reported at 2026-10-04T04:59:45Z)

Oct 4, 2026, 20:06 UTC

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Oct 4, 2026, 23:24 UTC.

YES1¢

NO99¢

Vol$2.5M

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.