How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?<50
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$443Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bloomberg: Noticeable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained extremely low, as attacks on ships and Iranian threats have heightened security concerns among ship owners and crews considering a voyage through the waterway.
Hormuz transits still low despite pause in fighting
Shipping in the Red Sea slowed after attacks in Yemen, according to Saudi data. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait slowed over the weekend after Yemenis attacked Saudi oil tankers and threatened further attacks on ships linked to Saudi ports, according to Saudi shipping data reviewed by Reuters. Meanwhile, CNN data showed a sharp drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to fewer than 10 commercial vessels over the weekend (compared to more than 100 ships per day under normal circumstances), as shipping companies reassessed security risks in the region. #AlMayadeen
Maritime traffic tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend
Reuters @IRIBNEWS_COM
Shipping data: Fewer than 10 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend.
Reuters, citing shipping tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend. @ilnair
Live: The number of vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz continues to drop, shipping data showed. Three commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from
The New York Times, citing ship-tracking firm Kpler: Only 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
The New York Times, citing ship-tracking firm Kpler: Only 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
The New York Times, citing ship-tracking firm Kpler: Only 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Live: Just 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler, a maritime data company, with shipping companies avoiding the waterway as the United States and Iran continue to trade strikes.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. • • Crossings through the Strait have fallen sharply across multiple shipping datasets with renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, Tehran’s declaration of a blanket ban on maritime traffic and fresh attacks on commercial vessels has prompted operators to reassess the risks. • • Read more on CNBC:
Where does the news lean?
25YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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