How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?<20
ResolvedOutcome: No$38Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in recent weeks. Reuters reported that information published in the maritime sector indicates that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains weak and has decreased in the shadow of the existing military tensions. Al Jazeera also reported that the movement of ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in the past few weeks. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus
Reuters: Shipping data shows a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following escalating attacks in the Middle East
America again left blank about Hormuz The US Secretary of Energy claimed regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that tankers pass through this strait at night and are accompanied by the US Navy. Wright also rejected the statistics of maritime tracking institutions and claimed that our data on the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is not an estimate, but an accurate reality. These statements are made while, according to ship tracking data, the traffic of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in the last days of last week was in single digits and is still much lower than the average of 14 vessels in the past 10 days. For example, last Saturday, only one Chinese tanker with a clear tracking system managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; while before the US and Israel war against Iran, more than 100 ships passed through this strait daily.
@Farsna - Link
Reuters: Initial ship tracking data shows that cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to less than 10 ships per day over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14 ships.
Reuters: Initial ship tracking data shows that cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to less than 10 ships per day on Sunday, well below the 10-day average of 14 ships.
Hormuz shipping traffic remains below 10-day average at weekend, data shows
YESReuters95%match8¢-100%
Strait of Hormuz Commodity Vessel Crossings at Single Digits Per Day at Weekend, Below 10-Day Average of Around 14, Data Shows
Where does the news lean?
9YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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