China Annual Inflation 2026<-1.0%
Open$20Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NBS: China June CPI down 0.3% MoM, up 1.0% YoY • The National Bureau of Statistics reported June CPI rose 1.0% YoY; urban +1.0%, rural +0.8%. Food prices fell 1.6% YoY, non-food +1.5%; consumer goods +1.1% YoY, services +0.8% YoY. Jan–Jun average CPI +1.0% YoY. Month-on-month June CPI declined 0.3% (urban -0.4%, rural -0.3%); food -0.4% MoM, non-food -0.3% MoM; consumer goods -0.6% MoM, services unchanged. • (
NOBloomberg98%match95¢+2%
China has stepped up efforts to temper the yuan’s advance by removing the additional charge for betting against the currency in the derivatives market
NOCNBC98%match95¢+2%
China holiday spending sends a strong signal on consumer stimulus plans
NOFirst Squawk98%match95¢+2%
China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged as Beijing signals tolerance for stronger yuan-CNBC
YESThe Economist99%match4¢-25%
China’s exchange rate, adjusted for inflation, would have to move a lot to correct its undervaluation. But that could jeopardise the country’s economic recovery and deepen deflation. The IMF proposes an alternative way out
YESThe Economist98%match3¢
According to some measures, China fell into deflation over two years ago. There has been a lot of water under the bridge since then
NOReuters99%match95¢+2%
China makes small dent in deflation battle as supply-demand imbalance persists
NOFirst Squawk98%match95¢+2%
GOLDMAN REVISES UP CHINA 2026 FULL-YEAR PPI FORECAST TO -0.5%
NOReuters98%match95¢+2%
China makes small dents in deflation battle as supply-demand imbalance persists
NOCNBC99%match95¢+2%
China consumer inflation rises less than expected in January as producer price deflation persists
NOFirst Squawk98%match95¢+2%
CHINA (JAN) PPI YOY ACTUAL: -1.4% VS -1.9% PREVIOUS;EST -1.5%
NOFirst Squawk98%match95¢+2%
CHINA (JAN) CPI YOY ACTUAL: 0.2% VS 0.8% PREVIOUS;EST 0.4%
YESzerohedge99%match5¢-40%
China consumer confidence: one of these decades it may stop being pessimistic
NOBloomberg98%match95¢+2%
China has let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks drop to a record low, according to people familiar with the situation, lowering funding costs so as to revive economic growth
Where does the news lean?
6YES12NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
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