Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceRatinho Júnior
Open$716Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in the polls for Brazil's presidential election. According to the latest survey by Genial/Quaest, Lula has 42% support compared to Bolsonaro's 41%, a difference of only one percentage point. The survey, conducted from May 8 to 11, 2026, interviewed more than 2,000 people over the age of 16, with a margin of error of 2%.
Where does the news lean?
1YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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