Berlin State Election: 3rd PlaceAfD
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$49Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
AfD wins ahead of SPD: After the state elections: Need for discussion in Berlin
The Left won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, gaining 25.7% of the vote, Tagesschau reports. They are followed by the CDU, with 18.8% of the vote, the Alternative for Germany with 16.3%, the Greens (14.3%) and the SPD (12.1%). Thus, the ruling coalition of the CDU and SPD has lost its majority, the TV channel notes. In the elections in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won, with 38.2% of the vote. The CDU gained 4.9% of the vote and did not overcome the five percent barrier to enter the state parliament. RBC always at hand - download the app for iOS and Android
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The Left Party won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies In the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, which took place on September 20, the Left Party took first place, receiving 25.7% of the votes (an increase of 13.5 percentage points compared to the 2023 elections). This follows from official preliminary data released on the night of Monday, September 21. In second place is the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 18.8%, in third place is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 16.3% [in reply to: Elections in Germany: AfD gains a record 44% in Saxony-Anhalt About 1.7 million voters took part in the elections. The turnout, according to preliminary estimates, is significantly higher than in 2021. The leader of the AfD list, Ulrich Sigmund, called the results "historic". Party co-chair Alice Weidel announced a "clear mandate to form a government." U. Sigmund had previously stated that he was only prepared to lead a government with an absolute majority for his party and did not intend to join a coalition. ]
The far-right AfD became the largest party in German state elections, while the CDU suffered its first-ever zero seats.
Following the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Friedrich Merz describes the results as disastrous and calls for an emergency meeting. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party advances and comes in second in Berlin.
AfD Opens 20-Point Lead a Month Before Crucial State Elections •
AfD extends lead over CDU/CSU – Left Party overtakes SPD for the first time
SPD falls behind the Greens – AfD maintains a clear lead over the CDU/CSU.
A poll shows the AfD in the lead in Berlin for the first time – the SPD is far behind in fifth place.
New poll: AfD now also leads in Berlin
Where does the news lean?
6YES13NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
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