Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Odds fell to 41% on Sep 20, 2026
Open
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 70.5¢ to 40.5¢ (-30 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
70.5¢
78.5¢
31.5¢
40.5¢
-30 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
NeutralReuters94%match
Far-Right AfD Seen at 16% in Berlin State Election - Exit Poll
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 36% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES36¢
NO65¢
$30K
Follow this market
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Berlin State Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.