Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Odds fell to 72% on Sep 21, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 96.6¢ to 71.9¢ (-24.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from spiegel.de. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 21, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 71.9¢ → 93.6¢+21.7 ptsafter a signal from news.tv-asahi.co.jp
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Berlin State Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.