Berlin State Election: 3rd Place

ResolvedOutcomes24as of

This hub tracks 24 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

AfD100%
CDU0%
SPD0%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

AfDalarabiya92%match0¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leads in local elections in Germany; Merz concedes defeat and calls the result a "disaster."
AfDfaz.net97%match100¢
AfD wins ahead of SPD: After the state elections: Need for discussion in Berlin
Linkewelt.de93%match
Wahlen in Berlin: Wo die Linke 40 Prozent holt – Linksrutsch in den Bezirken
CDUUkrinform Agency92%match100¢
Elections in Germany: CDU may not enter the state parliament for the first time in 80 years "This means that the CDU will not be in the new state parliament, since the party did not overcome the five percent barrier required to enter it," the report says. As noted, this is the party's worst result in the entire history of Germany. Subscribe to Ukrinform | Facebook | X | YouTube
SPDwelt.de96%match100¢
Berlin election: The divided capital – SPD with only one direct mandate
AfDRussian Media97%match99¢+1%
The Left won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, gaining 25.7% of the vote, Tagesschau reports. They are followed by the CDU, with 18.8% of the vote, the Alternative for Germany with 16.3%, the Greens (14.3%) and the SPD (12.1%). Thus, the ruling coalition of the CDU and SPD has lost its majority, the TV channel notes. In the elections in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won, with 38.2% of the vote. The CDU gained 4.9% of the vote and did not overcome the five percent barrier to enter the state parliament. RBC always at hand - download the app for iOS and Android RBC channel in "Max"
AfDKazinform98%match99¢+1%
The Left Party won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies In the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, which took place on September 20, the Left Party took first place, receiving 25.7% of the votes (an increase of 13.5 percentage points compared to the 2023 elections). This follows from official preliminary data released on the night of Monday, September 21. In second place is the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 18.8%, in third place is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 16.3% [in reply to: Elections in Germany: AfD gains a record 44% in Saxony-Anhalt About 1.7 million voters took part in the elections. The turnout, according to preliminary estimates, is significantly higher than in 2021. The leader of the AfD list, Ulrich Sigmund, called the results "historic". Party co-chair Alice Weidel announced a "clear mandate to form a government." U. Sigmund had previously stated that he was only prepared to lead a government with an absolute majority for his party and did not intend to join a coalition. ]
CDUUkrainian Media97%match99¢+1%
Merz's party has lost the third state election in 2 weeks: the CDU has been eliminated from the regional parliament for the first time ​ The worst result was in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union received only 4.9% compared to 13.3% in 2021 and did not overcome the five-percent threshold. This is the first time in history that the CDU has not entered the parliament of one of the German states, and the party's worst result in state elections since 1949, reports Tagesschau. ​ In the Berlin elections, which took place on the same day, the CDU received 18.8% compared to 28.2% in 2023 and came in second place after the Left Party. The current coalition of the CDU and the SPD has lost its majority. Two weeks earlier, support for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt had fallen from 37.1% to 17.2%. The far-right Alternative for Germany won there with a record 43.8%. Thus, in the last three state elections, Merz's party lost between 8.4 and 19.9 percentage points of support compared to its previous result. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Linkedpa.com93%match99¢+1%
CDU fliegt im Nordosten aus Landtag – Linke siegt in Berlin
AfDnews.tv-asahi.co.jp94%match28¢-100%
In the German state elections, the far-right AfD became the largest party, while Chancellor Merz's CDU suffered a "historic defeat" by losing all its seats.
AfDspiegel.de98%match97¢+3%
Berlin election 2026 - preliminary result: Left Party wins ahead of CDU, AfD in third place
CDUspiegel.de98%match99¢+1%
Berlin election 2026 - preliminary result: Left Party wins ahead of CDU, AfD in third place
AfDmainichi.jp93%match2¢-100%
The far-right AfD became the largest party in German state elections, while the CDU suffered its first-ever zero seats.
Linkedpa.com94%match100¢
CDU im Nordosten raus aus Landtag – Linke gewinnt in Berlin
AfDalarabiya96%match0¢
Following the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Friedrich Merz describes the results as disastrous and calls for an emergency meeting. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party advances and comes in second in Berlin.
CDUfaz.net95%match99¢+1%
Berlin election: Left Party wins state parliament election – CDU in second place
CDUNews92%match97¢+3%
THE LEFT PARTY LEADING THE ELECTIONS TO THE BERLIN CHAMBER OF DEPUTY WITH 24.5% OF THE VOTES, BEHIND IT IS MERZ'S CDU PARTY WITH 20% OF THE VOTES, AND THIRD IS THE ADF WITH 16% - EXIT POLL
SPDReuters93%match99¢+1%
Centre-Left SPD Seen at 12% in Berlin State Election - Exit Poll
SPDwelt.de95%match99¢+1%
Three days until the Berlin election: Left Party only narrowly ahead of the CDU in new poll – SPD loses ground
CDUwelt.de97%match86¢+16%
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
SPDwelt.de97%match92¢+9%
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
BSWwelt.de96%match99¢+1%
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
AfDspiegel.de94%match31¢+223%
ZDF-Politbarometer: AfD und SPD laut Umfrage in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vorn, Linke und CDU in Berlin
CDUwelt.de96%match78¢+28%
Poll: Left Party in first place in Berlin – CDU close behind, red-black coalition mathematically without a majority
AfDwelt.de97%match72¢-100%
Berlin election: Left Party overtakes CDU in poll – AfD clearly ahead of Greens and SPD
CDUwelt.de97%match22¢-100%
Berlin election: Left Party overtakes CDU in poll – AfD clearly ahead of Greens and SPD
SPDwelt.de97%match99¢+1%
Berlin election: Left Party overtakes CDU in poll – AfD clearly ahead of Greens and SPD
CDUbild.de96%match78¢+28%
New poll: Left Party and CDU vying for first place in Berlin
AfDhandelsblatt.com94%match53¢-100%
State election: AfD close to an absolute majority, CDU in shock.
AfDwelt.de95%match66¢-100%
AfD significantly widens gap with CDU/CSU in poll – Greens and SPD mathematically secure seats in state parliament

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)