Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election WinnerAfD
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Merz's party failed to enter the Mecklenburg parliament, while the AfD won.
AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote
Preliminary vote counts show that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament election, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) failed to secure a seat in the new state parliament.
German far-right party becomes the largest party in northeastern states; Chancellor Merz calls the AfD's surge a "catastrophe," putting the ruling party at risk of losing all seats.
Ergebnis der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern-Wahl: AfD siegt vor SPD, CDU fliegt aus Landtag
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Offiziell – AfD gewinnt Wahl vor SPD, CDU verpasst Landtagseinzug
AfD wins elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Preliminary result: AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - debacle for the CDU
YESNews97%match100¢
URGENT AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the protocols have been counted – Electoral Commission
The AfD party won the parliamentary elections in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, the German Electoral Commission reported. Merz's CDU failed to qualify for parliament, receiving only 4.9%. More IZ RU news in MAX
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament elections with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, according to the election commission. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU has failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time in German history, receiving less than 5%. Earlier, Merz called his party's performance in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections a disaster.
YESNews97%match100¢
AfD party wins parliamentary elections in German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of votes after 100% of protocols have been processed - ELECTION COMMISSION
Exit polls: Far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Germany's CDU Suffers Historic Collapse, Falls Below 5% in Mecklenburg Vote as AfD Leads With 38%
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD pulls away from SPD – CDU, according to ongoing count, now only at 4.8 percent
Elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD is in the lead – Schwesig wants to continue governing
Breaking: Germany’s far-right AfD party is projected to win the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz set to suffer its worst-ever state-level result, polls show. -@CNN
MERZ'S CDU PARTY POSTS WORST RESULT EVER IN A GERMAN STATE VOTE • • AFD AHEAD OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS IN NORTHEASTERN STATE VOTE • • ANTI-CAPITALIST LEFT PARTY LEADING IN BERLIN ELECTION
YESNews98%match84¢+19%
The AfD is leading the parliamentary elections in the German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 37% of the votes, while the SPD is in second place with 35.5% of the votes - exit poll
MERZ'S CDU PARTY POSTS WORST RESULT EVER IN A GERMAN STATE VOTE • • AFD OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS IN NORTHEASTERN STATE VOTE • • ANTI-CAPITALIST LEFT PARTY LEADING IN BERLIN ELECTION
Prognose Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: AfD in erster Prognose vor SPD – CDU bangt um Einzug in den Landtag
A poll shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leading with 36 percent ahead of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections in northern Germany. The poll was conducted by the INSA Institute before the elections scheduled for September 20.
Poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD significantly extends its lead over SPD – CDU slips to its worst ever recorded level
Live: Whether the AfD secures the majority or not, its electoral surge is undeniable. The party has doubled its vote share in the state compared to four years ago, the exit polls suggest. Nearly all of that gain came at the expense of the Christian Democrats, the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who are the biggest losers by far tonight in terms of vote share.
Poll: AfD remains strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – SPD makes significant gains
Umfrage: AfD legt in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern zu – Chance für rot-rot-grüne Koalition wächst
Poll: AfD gains ground in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – red-red-green coalition mathematically possible
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD enters the election campaign with less money than Schwesig – and still leads the polls
Where does the news lean?
74YES1NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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