Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds jumped to 88% on Sep 20, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds jumped from 68.5¢ to 87.5¢ (+19 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 82.5¢ → 97.6¢+15.1 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
- 80¢ → 97.9¢+17.9 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 83.5¢ → 97.8¢+14.3 ptsafter a signal from welt.de
- 83¢ → 98.4¢+15.4 ptsafter a signal from Published: 2026-09-20T18:34:59+02:00
- 83¢ → 98.5¢+15.5 ptsafter a signal from spiegel.de
- 81.5¢ → 98.8¢+17.3 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
- 80.5¢ → 98.9¢+18.4 ptsafter a signal from welt.de
- 83.5¢ → 99.1¢+15.6 ptsafter a signal from Walla Reporter
- 88.5¢ → 99.6¢+11.1 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.